The Coming Impasse
By Charlie Cook
The Cook Election Preview - The Coming Impasse
© National Journal
July 29, 2006
The summer of a midterm election year tends to be the calm before the storm. For the most part, candidates have been recruited and most nomination fights have been settled. And the initial general election skirmishes are over. But, although the broad contours of each race have been revealed, the outcome of key battles is far from certain.
So far, the summer of 2006 is sticking to the usual pattern. Indeed, little has changed since the spring edition of The Cook Election Preview was published in early May.
The national political climate continues to be ugly for Republicans, although a bit less so than two months ago. The atmosphere is at least as bad as it seemed for Democrats in the spring, summer, and even fall of 1994. In fact, when a reporter recently suggested that things were starting to look better for the GOP, a prominent Republican pollster corrected him, contending that it would be more accurate to say that things are looking "less worse."
President Bush's job-approval ratings bottomed out in the low-to-mid-30s in the first half of May. Earlier this summer, they recovered somewhat -- settling into the 40-to-41 percent range. But most recently, they've dipped again; many of the most recent national polls put Bush at or under 36 percent. That's toxic, but not the radioactive level of two months ago.
Bush has not recaptured all of the Republican support lost since the first of this year, so he could see his ratings return to the low 40s and even inch up another point or two. To gain much more, though, he would also need to recapture some independents and Democrats. Among those groups, however, disapproval of Bush's performance remains intense and very high.
In 1994, when Democrats suffered devastating midterm election losses, President Clinton's approval ratings in the Gallup Poll had fallen to 39 percent in late August and early September, his low for the year. Going into Election Day, his poll numbers had recovered to 46 or 48 percent, yet Democrats ended up losing 52 House seats and eight Senate seats, along with control of both chambers.
The number of competitive races, open seats, vulnerable freshmen, and Democrats playing defense in territory swinging toward the GOP were significantly higher in 1994 than they are this year. On the other hand, the majority party's margins are smaller this time -- 15 House seats and six Senate seats -- and hardly invincible.
As Senate expert Jennifer E. Duffy and House expert Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report argue in the analyses that follow, the national climate favors the Democrats so strongly this year that it's tempting to predict that they will end up with majorities in the Senate, House, and governorships despite a host of "micro" factors still working to the GOP's advantage.
In reality, it's impossible to know whether the Democrats' strong tailwind will sweep them to impressive gains -- anywhere or everywhere. This election's outcome is particularly difficult to forecast because each side has a fairly persuasive argument for why it will prevail.
One thing is abundantly clear: The odds are good that neither party will end up with a majority in either chamber that is as large as the ones Republicans now enjoy. Even without a reliable crystal ball, foreseeing a legislative and political stalemate isn't difficult.
What is extremely hard, if not impossible, is imagining how the next Congress will enact any overtly partisan or ideological measures, regardless of which party is in nominal "control" of either chamber. The impasse is likely to last until the 2008 presidential election -- and maybe beyond. |
