The Cook Political Report

June 12, 2008

· House Editor David Wasserman releases a ratings change in the race to replace retiring Virginia Rep. Tom Davis (R) following Tuesday's primary. With impressive ease, Fairfax County Supervisors Chairman Gerry Connolly (D) dispatched former Rep. Leslie Byrne (D) for the right to take on businessman Keith Fimian (R) in November. Read more here.

House Ratings Change:

VA - 11 - OPEN (Davis) Toss Up to Lean Democratic

· Check out the latest House, Senate and Governors At-A-Glances.

June 10, 2008

Singing the Down-Ballot Blues
By Charlie Cook
© National Journal Group Inc.
June 7, 2008

This column was originally featured in National Journal on June 7, 2008.

Considering how bleak Republicans' down-ballot prospects look, it is re-markable that they appear to have a 50-50 shot at holding on to the presidency. What makes this situation particularly unusual is the fact that a party seeking a third consecutive term in the White House generally succeeds only 20 percent of the time.

How awful is the outlook for Republicans in nonpresidential contests? Well, a GOP pollster commented the other day that if things weren't already bad enough for Republicans, a second consecutive election disaster this close to the start of the redistricting process has consequences too horrible for his party to even imagine. According to the National Conference of State Legislatures, nearly 80 percent of the 7,382 state legislative seats nationwide will be on the ballot this year. And the terms of 642 of the 1,971 state Senate seats up for grabs this year will run through at least 2011, when the new state legislative and congressional lines will be drawn.

But even the presidential race, the one silver lining for the GOP in 2008, will be a real challenge. That this race is going to be close seems pretty clear. A new Cook Political Report/RT Strategies poll, conducted May 29-31 among 802 registered voters, has John McCain and Barack Obama tied at 44 percent. It shows McCain pulling 89 percent of Republicans and Obama winning 75 percent of Democrats. It also has Obama edging out McCain among independents by just 4 percentage points, 43 percent to 39 percent. If those figures look strange, it's because the two major parties have gone from parity in voter identification four years ago to Democrats' having a 9-point advantage. Now, just to stay even, McCain has to perform 14 points better among Republicans than Obama has to among Democrats', given the deterioration in the number of people identifying with the GOP.

Two other just-released surveys show Obama a bit ahead: A Pew Research Center poll taken May 22-25 among 1,242 registered voters has Obama up by 3 points, 47 percent to 44 percent; a survey by Republican pollster Steve Lombardo's Lombardo Consulting Group involving 1,000 registered voters has Obama up by 4 points, 44 percent to 40 percent. Likewise, a May 13-15 survey of 1,014 likely voters taken by Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg for the Democracy Corps, which he chairs with James Carville, had Obama up by 2 points. No matter how you cut it, this contest looks like it will be close.

But that's a hard case to make down the ballot. Although numerous pollsters have noted that McCain has a brand identity distinct from the Republican Party, enabling him to significantly outperform his ailing party in current surveys, other GOP candidates are having great difficulty replicating his success.

A new and different Democracy Corps poll conducted among 1,600 likely voters who live in 45 Republican-held swing congressional districts found that voters in those districts viewed the Democratic Party more favorably than the Republican Party. The Democrats rated 48.3 on a scale with a top score of 100, while the GOP rated 41.6. On that same favorability scale, Obama did slightly better than McCain, 47.7 percent to 47.0 percent. Neither of these outcomes would hold in a poll of all Republican-held House districts, but the GOP is really hurting in the ones now viewed as in play. In a generic congressional ballot test in those 45 GOP-held swing districts, Democrats ran 9 points ahead, 51 percent to 42 percent, a horrific result for the GOP because it suggests that a Republican candidate could win 100 percent of the undecided vote and still lose by 2 points. When voters were asked about their presidential preference, Obama and McCain ran neck-and-neck--47 percent each--in those districts.

When that survey asked the general election question using the names of the most likely Republican and Democratic congressional nominees in place of the generic party, Democrats still led, 50 percent to 43 percent. It was an astonishing outcome, given that every one of these districts is represented by a Republican.

Clearly, Republican candidates need to find a way to boost their performances. They should move closer to McCain, who significantly outperforms his party in current polling. Obama, meanwhile, underperforms his party, but the Democratic brand helps him a lot, which is certainly a switch from earlier election cycles.

June 6, 2008

Exit Strategy
By Charlie Cook
© National Journal Group Inc.
June 3, 2008

This column was originally featured on nationaljournal.com on June 3, 2008.

As her odds of getting the Democratic presidential nomination got longer and longer over the past few months, there have been increasing calls for Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., to drop her bid for the sake of the party.

Those pleas were wrong and unfair. When was the last time a presidential candidate who was still consistently winning primaries and getting healthy numbers of votes asked to step aside, particularly with more states to go?

In the same respect, if nobody would expect a football or basketball team that was trailing with a few minutes left in the game to leave the court before the buzzer, why should a candidate still winning drop out of the contest?

Besides, this intense primary process has been a tremendously effective voter registration and organizational effort for Democrats. Finally, the Democratic Party and its various constituencies owed the candidates a little latitude for their service over the years.

But after tonight, all that changes. After the final primaries in Montana and South Dakota, and with the issues involving Florida and Michigan resolved by the Democratic National Committee, the Clinton "stand and fight" arguments take on a shrillness and a futility that would put the Clintons' standing in the party in very grave danger.

On at least one level, Clinton has really helped herself this year. She has shown a fight, a perseverance and a tenacity that has proven that she has heart. Nobody can deny that she's the real deal.

People can argue whether former President Clinton intended to or in fact did make racially charged arguments around the time of the South Carolina primary.

Some fervently believe he did and vow never to forgive him or his wife for his having done it. Others say that the statements he made were not racist; that it just shows how anything said on any aspect of the race issue is explosive, and that this was the case of an angry husband who felt his wife was not being treated fairly lashing out and choosing his words poorly.

Regardless of which side one comes down on in that debate, it's probably a decent bet that Bill Clinton will never be viewed by the black community in the same way again. He can try to diminish the ill will, but it will never go away.

At this point, the Clintons should begin thinking about their future and standing in the party. What they do over the next five months will determine what their standing will be. Will they be seen as party unifiers and team players, or party wreckers and sore losers?

Recent history shows terrific examples of how to handle and how not to handle tough losses.

In the 1994 Maryland governor's race, Democrat Parris Glendening, the county executive for Prince George's County, edged Ellen Sauerbrey, the state House of Delegates Republican leader, by a scant 5,993 votes out of more than 1.4 million cast.

Some Republicans said they smelled foul play, although a subsequent bipartisan investigation found none. Sauerbrey fought and fought, long after it was clear that she would not prevail, earning her the moniker, "Ellen Sourgrapes."

In the 1998 rematch, though Glendening's popularity was on the wane, Sauerbrey's mishandling of the recount likely prevented her from taking advantage of the situation and she lost, 55-45 percent.

In 2006, Republican automobile dealer Vern Buchanan edged out Christine Jennings, a banker and the Democratic nominee in Florida's 13th District, by 369 votes, though the results were clouded by evidence of voting-machine irregularities.

But once again, the candidate on the short end of the stick handled it badly.

This, too, might put Jennings at a disadvantage in her rematch effort this fall against Buchanan. A strong Democratic tide might push her over the top, but that's what it would take, as she came across as a sore loser.

The model for how to lose gracefully is South Dakota Sen. John Thune. Then a House member, Thune lost his 2002 challenge to incumbent Democratic Sen. Tim Johnson by just 524 votes, with suggestions of voting irregularities on Indian reservations clouding the outcome.

But Thune stepped back, handled the outcome with grace and was able to leverage that into being well positioned to take on Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle, D-S.D., just two years later and unseat him.

If I were Hillary Clinton, I would bow out over the next few days, take a well-earned vacation and catch up on sleep.

After that, she needs to spend the rest of the summer and fall campaigning for Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., and paying off her multimillion-dollar campaign debt.

No one would be able to say that Hillary and Bill Clinton didn't do all they could to help Obama win the general election. And in all honesty, she could also be praying every night that he loses, so she could give folks the "I told you so" look and have another shot in 2012.

In the long haul, if the Clintons handle this right, she can strengthen her position in the party and he can begin the rehabilitation of his own place in the party. Handled badly, neither will ever be able to fully recover.

Correction: In my June 3 column, I mistakenly referred to "evidence of voting-machine irregularities" in the 2006 race between Vern Buchanan and Christine Jennings in Florida's 13th Distrist. In fact, a Government Accountability Office report issued in 2007 concluded that no such evidence could be found. Although my point that Jennings handled the situation badly still stands, I should have instead referred to "allegations of voting-machine irregularities."

June 5, 2008

· Primary Aftermath: Race Ratings Change in Ten Districts: House Editor David Wasserman releases the latest updates for districts in which primaries were held on Tuesday, and explains what the conclusion of the Democratic presidential nomination fight may mean in several other districts across the country. We are changing our race ratings in ten districts where we believe Democratic chances of taking Republican-held seats have increased. With these changes, the GOP occupies 21 of the 27 seats now listed in the Toss Up column. To read more click here.

CA-04- OPEN (Doolittle)- Solid Republican to Likely Republican

CO-04- Marilyn Musgrave- Lean Republican to Toss Up

CT-04- Chris Shays- Lean Republican to Toss Up

IL-10- Mark Kirk- Lean Republican to Toss Up

NM-02- OPEN (Pearce)- Likely Republican to Lean Republican

NY-29- Randy Kuhl- Lean Republican to Toss Up

NC-08- Robin Hayes- Lean Republican to Toss Up

OH-01- Steve Chabot- Lean Republican to Toss Up

VA-02- Thelma Drake- Likely Republican to Lean Republican

WA-08- Dave Reichert- Lean Republican to Toss Up

· Senior Editor Jennifer Duffy posts analyses of this year’s gubernatorial contests from North Dakota to West Virginia.

· Check out the latest results of the Cook Political Report/RT Strategies poll conducted May 29-31, 2008 of 802 registered voters. In the head-to-head match ups, Obama leads McCain 44 percent to 43 percent. And don’t miss the combined May 29-31 and April 17-20 polls of 1604 registered voters. In the combined poll McCain and Obama are tied at 44 percent. For the topline and cross tabs click here.

· Check out the latest House, Senate and Governors At-A-Glances.

June 3, 2008

Gearing Up
By Charlie Cook
© National Journal Group Inc.
May 31, 2008

This column was originally featured in National Journal on May 31, 2008.

Much like a car whose gears shift poorly, this presidential contest is making a rather awkward transition to its general election phase. Nevertheless, as it turns into a competition between John McCain and Barack Obama, the race for 270 Electoral College votes is worth a hard look.

May 29, 2008

· House Editor David Wasserman releases the House Rundowns for Virginia to Wyoming.

· Check out the latest House and Senate At-A-Glances.

May 27, 2008

A Punishing Mood
By Charlie Cook
© National Journal Group Inc.
May 24, 2008

This column was originally featured in National Journal on May 24, 2008.

At the outset of this election cycle, most political analysts did not anticipate a second consecutive big win in November for congressional Democrats for a number of reasons.

Number Soup
By Charlie Cook
© National Journal Group Inc.
May 20, 2008

This column was originally featured on nationaljournal.com on May 20, 2008.

Whether you look at the averages of all the major national polls on realclearpolitics.com or pollster.com's trend estimates based on most recent polling, presumptive Republican nominee Sen. John McCain of Arizona very narrowly trails Democratic Sens. Barack Obama of Illinois and Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York by 2 to 3 points.

May 22, 2008

· SENATE RATINGS CHANGES

MS-B Wicker Likely Rep to Toss Up
NC Dole Solid Rep to Likely Rep

MS-B SEN: According to Senior Editor Jennifer Duffy, Republicans may have to fight to hold on to a seat in the Deep South. “A competitive Senate race in Mississippi? In a presidential year? Really? As crazy as it sounds, a new poll does indeed show that appointed GOP Sen. Roger Wicker will have a fight on his hands in his bid to complete the remainder of former Sen. Trent Lott’s term.” Read more here.

NC SEN: Duffy writes that Democrats have put the race in North Carolina in their sights. “In their effort to put more Senate races in play, Democrats have turned their attention to North Carolina and GOP incumbent Elizabeth Dole.” Read more here.

House Editor David Wasserman takes a look at the past week's developments in the House here.

· House Ratings Changes:

OR-05 - OPEN (Hooley) Toss Up to Lean Democratic

· Check out the latest House and Senate At-A-Glances.

May 20, 2008

This column was originally featured in National Journal on May 17, 2008.

"Curiouser and curiouser!" cried Alice (she was so much surprised, that for the moment she quite forgot how to speak good English).

Like Alice's Adventures in Wonderland, this contest for the Democratic presi-dential nom-ination is getting curiouser and curiouser. Sure, arithmetically speaking, it's practically impossible to see how Hillary Rodham Clinton can win, even with her jaw-dropping 41-point, 67 percent to 26 percent, win in West Virginia and her lead of 25 to 34 points in Kentucky polling. But Democratic superdelegates and activists have to be swallowing hard looking at Barack Obama, their presumptive nominee, running so weakly in West Virginia, a state that has voted Democratic in five of the last eight and eight of the last 12 presidential elections.

May 16, 2008

This column was originally featured on nationaljournal.com on May 13, 2008.

Recent special elections for House seats in Illinois and Louisiana that were once reliably Republican sent the GOP an unmistakable signal that the party's 25-year-old playbook is obsolete: Simply spouting an undiluted conservative message doesn't consistently work anymore, even in some of the nation's reddest districts. And a potential loss in a special election in Mississippi later this month could underscore that message.

May 15, 2008

· House Editor David Wasserman examines the outlook in the House following the special election outcome in Mississippi's 1st CD. The Cook Political Report now estimates that Democrats will gain between 10 and 20 seats in the House. Read more here.

· House Ratings Changes:

MS-01- Travis Childers- Republican Toss Up to Democratic Toss Up
WV-02- Shelley Moore Capito- Solid Republican to Likely Republican

· House Editor David Wasserman releases the latest House Rundowns for Utah and Vermont.

· Don't miss the latest Senate and Governors poll charts.

· Check out the latest House, Senate, and Governors At-A-Glances.

May 13, 2008

This column was originally featured in National Journal on May 10, 2008.

Note: The number for each catergory is the total for both parties in that rating. In other words, the "Solid Dem" number includes not only the Democratic-held seats that are currently rated as Solid Democrat, but also any Republican-held seats that are currently rated as Solid Democrat. Numbers in parenthesis indicate cumulative numbers of seats to that point in the ratings.

* We include Sens. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) and Bernard Sanders (I-VT) as Democrats