Our Take From The Trenches
By Charlie Cook
Libby Indictment Fallout (October 28, 2005)
Purple Haze (March 30, 2004) Libby Indictment Fallout
October 28, 2005
With today's indictment of Scooter Libby, Vice President Cheney's Chief of Staff, on five counts of obstruction of justice, making false statements and perjury, the worst week of the worst month of the worst year of President Bush's administration begins to end. However, the ongoing investigation of Bush's Chief of Staff Karl Rove indicates that the worst may or may not be over. There is no point in listing the litany of unfavorable developments, but the question remains, what does this mean for the 2006 midterm elections?
Nine or six or even three months ago, if you asked us what was the most likely 2006 election outcome, we would have said that Republicans lose seats in both the Senate and House, but would probably maintain their majorities in both chambers. Today, our answer remains the same. However, the probability that there will be Republican losses is significantly higher than it was nine, six or even three months ago. Furthermore, the possibility that the GOP could lose either the Senate or the House, or both, is higher, though still no better than one-in-five.
In the Senate, Democrats have a full team on the field. They have at least credible, and in some cases, first-class, candidates in seven Republican-held seats, of which they need to pick off six to win, and not lose any of their own. Recruiting is no longer an issue, as Democrats have their candidates, but they do need the partisan playing field to remain tilted in their favor, at the 45 degree angle that it is today, and they have to continue to raise a ton of money over the next year. The propensity of the closest Senate seats to "pop" at the end, with between 67 and 89 percent of the toss up Senate races breaking the same direction in each of the last four elections, definitely plays in favor of Democrats ( see October 1, 2005 National Journal column ).
If Senate Republicans have an ace in the hole, it is that in "wave" elections, open seats fall first, and only then do incumbents start losing. Furthermore, Republicans only have one open Senate seat, in Tennessee. To win control, Democrats must beat at least five incumbents, which is never easy. Making it more difficult, as of today only two of the five appear to be highly endangered, Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania and Lincoln Chafee in Rhode Island.
In the House, Democrats also need the playing field to remain tilted 45 degrees in their favor and to raise a ton of money. But in order to have a reasonable chance of netting 15 seats, they must have credible candidates running in at least 50 vulnerable Republican districts. Today, they have somewhere between two dozen and 32. The first filing deadline comes in Illinois on December 19, and the last one on August 11 in Louisiana. The most important filing deadline will be in Ohio, with its toxic political environment for Republicans, on February 16. If the current national political climate remains as it is for the next couple of months, our guess is that Democrats will get their 50 plausible challengers, but the money and political tilt must also come through for them.
So even with the Libby indictment, and whether White House Deputy Chief of Staff Karl Rove is eventually indicted or not, there are a lot of things that have to go exactly right for Democrats to win control of either chamber. It seems an improving possibility, but hardly the probability that some seem to be arguing. There is still much that could happen, as the election is still a year away.
PURPLE HAZE
March 30, 2004
There has been a remarkable level of agreement to date between strategists of both parties about which states are "in play." The battleground where this presidential election will be waged includes PA, OH, MI, WI and MN in the Great Lakes region, OR and WA in the Pacific Northwest, AZ, NM and NV in the Southwest, IA, MO and AR in the center, FL in the Southeast, then WV, NH and ME.
Recent surveys taken by pollsters of both parties have President Bush leading Sen. John Kerry by less than a half dozen points in Colorado, a state that has been reliably Republican in many years. Theories vary as to why this is, including an increasing proportion of Democratic-voting Hispanics and an influx of out-of-state voters with very different voting patterns than natives. Given the new polls, don't be surprised to see the presidential ads starting hitting Colorado as well. While often times strategists and analysts are aware of trends in a state, particularly the combination of demographic changes and in-migration, they under-estimate the speed of the transition. A perfect example of that is Florida in 2000, which became a swing state much faster than anyone anticipated.
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