2008 Political Outlook and Presidential Overview
February 14, 2008
National Overview
The race for the Democratic presidential nomination has reached another, and potentially final, critical phase. Sen. Barack Obama's recent eight-state sweep demonstrated a breadth and depth of support that has convinced many skeptics that his campaign is all but unstoppable. His growth in support among white male voters in particular was impressive. If Obama is successful in extending his streak next Tuesday to ten states (with wins in Wisconsin and Hawaii) it would require huge victory margins in Texas and Ohio to get Clinton back in the delegate game. Those margins look increasingly unlikely.
Clinton needs, in the words of a campaign manager for a previous Democratic nominee, a "game changing" event or development to stop the Obama momentum. The important thing to remember about this proportional delegate selection process that Democrats employ, is that it is difficult to build a significant delegate lead, but even harder to overcome one. Obama has now overtaken Clinton and is on the verge of building a significant lead if this momentum goes unabated through Texas and Ohio. Due to the eccentricities of the Texas system, there are far more delegates to be won in African-American senatorial districts than in the Clinton-strong Hispanic districts.
Watch Wisconsin this Tuesday. If Obama wins there, the slope gets that much steeper for Clinton.
On the Republican side, top McCain campaign strategists hope to reach a delegate majority on March 4 in the Ohio and Texas primaries. June 29, 2007
THE POLITICAL LANDSCAPE
There are two distinct schools of thought regarding the 2008 elections. The first teaches that after six and a half years of George W. Bush's presidency, the Republican 'brand' has been badly tarnished. As a result, it would take an enormous amount of luck for Republicans to hold the White House or win back control of the Senate or House, let alone accomplish any combination of the three. Most backers of this theory see the GOP as likely to go through a long and painful rebuilding process that will make recapturing the White House or congressional majorities unlikely in the near future.
The other school says that although the Republican brand has been badly damaged, the public mood remains as ugly today as it was before the tidal wave election last November. That is that Democrats in Congress have accomplished very little, leaving voters unimpressed with their leadership. Adherents to this point of view conclude that a problematic volatility has been created for all incumbents and that while voters may still be anti-Republican, they are certainly not pro-Democratic. They warn that voters may be receptive to insurgent candidates of either or no party come 2008.
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The Post-Election Analysis
The Final Analysis (November 15, 2006)
Final 2006 Election Analysis
November 6, 2006
Going into Election Day, we see a 20-35 seat gain for Democrats in the House, a four to six seat gain for Democrats in the Senate and a six to eight seat gain for Democrats in the governor's races. All Monday there was considerable talk that the national picture had suddenly changed and that there was a significant tightening in the election. This was based in part on two national polls that showed the generic congressional ballot test having tightened to four (Pew) and six (ABC/Wash Post) points.
Seven national polls have been conducted since Wednesday, November 1. They give Democrats an average lead of 11.6 percentage points, larger than any party has had going into an Election Day in memory. Even if you knock five points off of it, it's 6.6 percentage points, bigger than the advantage that Republicans had going into 1994.
Furthermore, there is no evidence of a trend in the generic ballot test. In chronological order of interviewing (using the midpoint of field dates), the margins were: 15 points (Time 11/1-3), 6 points (ABC/Wash Post), 4 points (Pew), 7 points (Gallup), 16 points (Newsweek), 20 points (CNN) and 13 points (Fox).
In individual races, some Republican pollsters see some movement, voters "coming home," in their direction, and/or some increase in intensity among GOP voters. All seem to think that it was too little, too late to significantly change the outcome. However, it might be enough to save a few candidates. None think it is a major change in the dynamics of races, and most remain somewhere between fairly and extremely pessimistic about tomorrow's outcome.
Charlie Cook's National Overview
There Is No Ebb In The Wave
October 30, 2006
With the election just eight days away, there are no signs that this wave is abating. Barring a dramatic event, we are looking at the prospect of GOP losses in the House of at least 20 to 35 seats, possibly more, and at least four in the Senate, with five or six most likely.
If independents vote in fairly low numbers, as is customary in midterm elections, losses in the House will be on the lower end of that range. But if they turn out at a higher than normal level, their strong preference for Democrats in most races would likely push the GOP House losses to or above the upper levels.
The dynamics we are seeing this year are eerily similar to those in 1994. The President and party are different, so are the issues, but the dynamics are comparable.
In 1994, Democrats were in trouble because of tax increases, a failed health plan, and the crime bill (read, guns). There were also a myriad of scandals that started in the late 1980s that moved voters, including many Democrats, to reject the party's candidates, including some once-popular incumbents.
This year, it is the war in Iraq and scandals. For conservatives, the list also includes the Mark Foley affair, immigration, high government spending and high deficits. For Democrats and independents, stem cell research and Terri Schiavo round out the list. Finally, it would seem that voters of all ideological stripes feel that the GOP-lead Congress has become dysfunctional.
Anatomy of a Wave
November 1, 2006
Click this link for our final National Overview from Oct. 24, 1994. Below is our final forecast and the actual results:
The House:
Our Final 1994 Analysis: "We are now expecting that Republicans will gain between 30 and 35 seats in the House and that their chances of actually capturing a House majority for the first time since 1954 are slighly better than one in three.
Result: Republicans pick up 52 seats and the majority
The Senate:
Our Final 1994 Analysis: "We believe that Republicans will capture a Senate majority, either with an outright win of at least seven seats or perhaps a six-seat gain and a party switch (i.e. Alabama's Richard Shelby).
Result: Republicans went from a 56-44 seat minority to a 54-46 seat majority after the election (includes two party switchers, Sens. Richard Shelby and Ben Nighthorse Campbell)
The Governors:
Our Final 1994 Analysis: Overall, we see the GOP gaining a net of between six and ten statehouses on Nov. 8.
Result: Republicans gain 11 statehouses
October 13, 2006
Category 5 Hurricane Heads for House GOP
Let's get the disclaimer out of the way: there are 25 days between now and the November 7 election and things could well change, making what follows obsolete.
That said, this is without question the worst political situation for the GOP since the Watergate disaster in 1974. I think a 30-seat gain today for Democrats is more likely to occur than a 15-seat gain, the minimum that would tip the majority. The chances of that number going higher are also strong, unless something occurs that fundamentally changes the dynamic of this election. This is what Republican strategists' nightmares look like.
Whether one looks at national or district-level polling data, or a survey like the new Democracy Corps survey that covered the 49 most vulnerable GOP districts, the conclusion remains the same: it is very ugly for Republicans.
On a conference call today, James Carville suggested that the Democratic Party should expand beyond just the top targeted races. He believes the party should help fund previously ignored Democratic challengers in second- and third-tier districts--the next 30 to 50 Republican-held seats--to fully capitalize on this environment and help those candidates maximize their chances of winning. Carville went as far as to suggest Democrats go to the bank and borrow $5 million. If I were them, I'd make it $10 million and put $500,000 each of these 20 districts.
For Republicans, it is a time to defend every seat, no matter how secure those seats appear. If things don't change, GOP incumbents, who never even contemplated having a difficult race, may well lose this year. And if I were a Republican, I'd start praying that something happens to take the spotlight away from Iraq and scandals, because this current issue mix is lethal.
In the Senate, there were already seven GOP seats that were virtually tied, and in three or four of those cases, politically dead. Thus, we have not seen as much movement as we've seen in the House. Readers should remember the Cook Political Report's long respected policy of not putting unindicted incumbents in a worse category than Toss Up. For more on the state of play in the Senate races, see Editor Jennifer Duffy's Senate Overview in today's update.
Can things change? Sure. The North Korean nuclear (or non-nuclear, as the case may be) tests should serve as a reminder that this election, like any other, can turn on a dime. But for Republicans, it must turn if they have any hope of salvaging this election.
Charlie Cook's National Overview
May 6, 2006
The 2006 midterm elections are a political analyst's nightmare. The national climate seems to portend big changes, yet race-by-race analyses reveal formidable odds against a Democratic takeover of either the House or the Senate.
Voters' unhappiness over the direction of the country, Congress's abysmal approval ratings, President Bush's exceedingly low job-approval scores, and Democrats' advantage on the generic congressional ballot test all suggest that Democrats should be able to seize the House and possibly the Senate. These are the sort of climate indicators that foretold the Republican tsunami of 1994. (Read More...)
Charlie Cook's National Overview
January 6, 2006
Updated January 17, 2006
Political aficionados have to wait no longer - the 2006 mid-term election year has arrived.
The filing deadlines for candidates in the first two states, Illinois and Texas, have passed and the first congressional and gubernatorial primary will take place in March. And in November we will know the answer to two important questions. First, can Republicans break the "Six-Year-Itch" jinx, in which the party holding the White House has lost large numbers of seats in the Senate and/or the House in five out of the last six such second-term, mid-term elections? And second, can Democrats gain seats after having lost seats in both the House and Senate for the last two elections? (Read More...)
Our Take From The Trenches:
Libby Indictment Fallout (October 28, 2005)
Other Voices:
By Alan Abramowitz, political science professor at Emory University
Are Falling Gasoline Prices Boosting Bush? (September 27, 2006)
Can the Democrats Take the House? Uniting the Macro and Micro Perspectives (April 3, 2006)
Just Weight! The Case for Dynamic Party Identification Weighting (August 12, 2005)
The Final Analysis: 2004: Results and Analysis from the 2004 Election
National Overview Archives
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